Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay Rays: Final Score & Recap

The Tampa Bay Rays defeated the Chicago White Sox 1-0 on August 1, 2026, at Tropicana Field, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a home win shifting from 60% before the game to a certainty at 100% by the final out. The lone run of the contest came in the bottom of the fifth inning, when Nick Fortes singled off Noah Schultz to push Tampa Bay's win probability up by 11.1 percentage points — the decisive swing of the game. Chicago had opportunities late, most notably in the seventh inning when Randal Grichuk's single off Cam Booser moved the White Sox needle up 6.4 percentage points, only for Braden Montgomery to follow with a strikeout that erased 5.8 points of that swing. The White Sox also came up empty in the ninth, as Miguel Vargas's flyout off Bryan Baker cost Chicago 7.1 percentage points and effectively closed the door on any comeback.

Tampa Bay's pitching staff carried the performance, with Drew Rasmussen leading all players with a WPA of plus-24.3 percentage points, followed by Baker at plus-15.2 and Schultz — despite surrendering the Fortes single — at plus-15.1. On the offensive side, Fortes was Tampa Bay's most impactful bat at plus-7.6 WPA with a RE24 of plus-0.5, while Grichuk topped White Sox hitters at plus-3.4 WPA despite the team being held scoreless. Both clubs finished with five hits apiece, but Tampa Bay committed one error to Chicago's none, and the Rays converted their only meaningful opportunity into the game's sole run.