San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 12 | 0 |
| SD | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 10 | 0 |
The Story
The San Diego Padres edged the San Francisco Giants 6-5 on August 1, 2026, at Petco Park in a game that came down to the final at-bat. The DiamondIQ model entered the night favoring San Diego with a 63% home win probability, and after a tense back-and-forth affair, that estimate closed at 100% when Jake Cronenworth delivered a walk-off single off Dylan Smith in the bottom of the ninth, a play that swung win probability by +35.9 points and ended the Giants' rally before it could fully materialize. The inning had begun with Xander Bogaerts delivering a +17.5% swing double off Smith to set the table, but Gavin Sheets' groundout, which cost the Padres 19.5 percentage points, briefly kept the door open for San Francisco before Cronenworth slammed it shut.
The game's earlier turning points were equally significant by the numbers. San Diego built its initial cushion in the first inning with two runs, only to watch San Francisco answer with three in the third to take a lead. The Padres reclaimed control in the fourth when Freddy Fermin launched a home run off Tyler Mahle, a swing worth +20.7% in win probability and one that anchored Fermin's night-ending line of +32.2% WPA and a +2.1 RE24. San Francisco clawed back with two runs in the eighth, with Osleivis Basabe's double off Mason Miller generating the largest single batting swing of that frame at +28.6%, but the Padres answered with a decisive run in the bottom of the ninth to maintain enough separation for Cronenworth's winner.
Basabe led all position players with a +39.4% WPA and +3.1 RE24, making him the most impactful bat in a losing effort. On the pitching side, San Diego's bullpen carried the burden efficiently, with Wandy Peralta (+13.7% WPA), Adrian Morejon (+12.6%), and Caleb Kilian (+10.9%) each contributing meaningful probability gains to preserve a victory that the model had leaned toward from first pitch. San Francisco finished with 12 hits but could not convert them when it mattered most in the late innings.