New York Yankees at Chicago Cubs: Final Score & Recap

The New York Yankees shut out the Chicago Cubs 2-0 at Wrigley Field on July 31, 2026, holding a team the DiamondIQ model had installed as 54% pre-game favorites to a final win probability of zero. New York managed just four hits but converted two of them into the only runs of the game, while Cubs starter Shota Imanaga absorbed both solo blows and the Yankees pitching staff made them stand.

The decisive swings came in back-to-back innings against Imanaga. Amed Rosario led off the fourth with a solo home run that shifted win probability 11.8 points in New York's favor, and Spencer Jones answered in the fifth with another solo shot that added another 12.2 points, the single largest win-probability play of the night. Those were the only runs the Yankees would need. Chicago's best threat to answer came in the ninth against David Bednar, but Alex Bregman's groundout swung 12.0 points back toward New York, and Michael Busch's flyout two batters later effectively closed the door, costing the Cubs 5.6 points of win probability. A Paul Goldschmidt double play in the sixth had earlier erased a chance for New York to extend its lead, dropping the Yankees' win probability by 6.1 points, but Imanaga could not capitalize on that reprieve.

Will Warren was the standout performer by the DiamondIQ model's measure, accumulating 35.5 points of win-probability added to lead all players in the game. Paul Blackburn contributed another 18.7 points out of the bullpen, and Antoine Kelly added 4.6 more, making the Yankees' pitching the story even beyond the two solo home runs. Jones led the offense at plus 11.6 points of win probability with a RE24 of plus 1.1, while Rosario added 9.5 points. Chicago's five hits produced nothing, and the Cubs' 54% pre-game advantage evaporated entirely by the final out.