Minnesota Twins at Seattle Mariners: Final Score & Recap

The Minnesota Twins took down the Seattle Mariners 5-3 at T-Mobile Park on July 31, 2026, handing Seattle a loss the DiamondIQ model's estimate made increasingly likely as the game wore on. The Mariners held an early advantage, scoring two runs in the bottom of the first, but the Twins chipped away with a Brooks Lee home run off Bryce Miller in the second inning that added 8.9% in win probability. The game remained close through six innings before Minnesota seized control in the seventh, which proved to be the decisive frame.

The top of the seventh was where the contest effectively turned. Luke Keaschall delivered a double off Eduard Bazardo that swung win probability 17.6% in Minnesota's favor, the single largest swing of the night by that measure, and Royce Lewis followed with a home run off José A. Ferrer worth another 15.6%. That sequence erased Seattle's lead entirely. Ryan Jeffers added an insurance run with a home run off Bazardo again in the eighth inning, a blow worth 14.9% in win probability that extended the Twins' cushion to two. The Mariners mounted a mild threat in the ninth when Weston Wilson drew a walk off Yoendrys Gómez, a moment that briefly moved win probability 7.8%, but it produced nothing more.

By the final out, the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Mariners victory had dropped from 51% before first pitch to 0%. Keaschall was the game's most impactful offensive performer, finishing with a combined WPA of plus 22.8% and a RE24 of plus 1.5. Lewis and Jeffers each contributed meaningfully behind him. On the pitching side, Bryce Miller led Seattle's staff with a WPA of plus 15.8% despite surrendering the Lee homer, while Andrew Morris and Kody Funderburk provided notable value for Minnesota out of the bullpen, each posting WPA figures above 13%.