Miami Marlins at New York Mets: Final Score & Recap

The New York Mets defeated the Miami Marlins 4-2 at Citi Field on July 30, 2026, in a game that remained tightly contested through the middle innings before the Mets pulled away with a decisive eighth-inning rally. The DiamondIQ model opened the game with a 47 percent home win probability, a figure that climbed steadily but did not reach its final reading of 100 percent until the Mets finished their work in the bottom of the eighth.

The two most consequential moments came from Luis Robert Jr., whose contributions accounted for a combined +39.8 percent in win probability added, the highest mark among all batters. His single off Michael Petersen in the bottom of the eighth was the single largest win-probability swing of the night at +30.4 percent, effectively closing the door on any Marlins comeback. Earlier, in the bottom of the sixth, a fielding error charged to Eury Pérez on a ball hit by Robert shifted the game's probability by +13.8 percent, and Francisco Lindor followed with a single off Pérez worth another +12.5 percent, turning that frame into the Mets' first lead of the game. Miami had briefly seized the initiative in the top of the seventh when Jakob Marsee hit a home run off Nolan McLean that swung win probability +15.8 percent in the Marlins' favor, but the Mets answered emphatically in the eighth. Kyle Stowers had given Miami an earlier advantage with a solo home run off McLean in the fourth, worth +11.3 percent.

On the pitching side, Brooks Raley led all relievers with +19.4 percent in win probability added, supported by Lake Bachar at +8.3 percent and Devin Williams at +6.3 percent, as the Mets bullpen held Miami to no runs after the seventh. Bo Bichette contributed +10.3 percent at the plate, and Marsee finished at +9.3 percent despite his club's loss. The final line showed Miami finishing with seven hits and an error against the Mets' six hits and an error, but the Mets concentrated their damage in the innings that mattered most.