Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinals: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| STL | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 1 |
The Story
The Chicago Cubs defeated the St. Louis Cardinals 4-2 in ten innings at Busch Stadium on July 30, 2026, completing a comeback that saw them outscore St. Louis 2-1 in the seventh and add two more in the tenth to seal it. The DiamondIQ model entered the game giving the home Cardinals a 47 percent win probability, a figure that eroded steadily before reaching zero by the final out. The Cubs finished with 11 hits and no errors, while St. Louis committed one error across 10 hits.
The decisive sequence came in the top of the tenth, where three consecutive plays shifted the game's probability dramatically in Chicago's favor. Alex Bregman opened the inning with a double off Luis Gastelum that added 18.7 percentage points to the Cubs' win probability, the single most impactful plate appearance of the game. Ian Happ followed with another double off Gastelum worth 15.1 percentage points, and a Michael Busch groundout in between those moments added 16.4 percentage points, reflecting how effectively Chicago converted the extra-inning runner into actual runs. JJ Wetherholt had kept St. Louis within reach with an 18.1 percent swing homer off Caleb Thielbar in the bottom of the seventh, but Aaron Civale answered in the tenth by striking out Lars Nootbaar, a moment worth 14.4 percentage points that closed the door.
Bregman finished as the game's top batter by the DiamondIQ model's estimate, accumulating plus-22.4 percent WPA and plus-1.1 RE24, with Busch close behind at plus-21.7 percent WPA and plus-0.8 RE24. Among pitchers, Andre Pallante led all arms with plus-19.3 percent WPA, followed by Ryan Rolison at plus-15.6 and Riley O'Brien at plus-13.5, a trio that collectively preserved the lead long enough for Chicago's tenth-inning burst to finish the job.