Atlanta Braves at New York Mets: Final Score & Recap

The Atlanta Braves defeated the New York Mets 1-0 on July 28, 2026, at Citi Field, holding New York to just two hits in a tightly contested shutout. The DiamondIQ model's estimate had the Mets with a 38% win probability before first pitch, a figure that eroded steadily before bottoming out at 0% by the final out. Atlanta manufactured the game's lone run in the top of the sixth inning, when Jim Jarvis doubled off Christian Scott to generate an 8.3% win-probability swing, and Drake Baldwin followed with a single worth an additional 7.7%, plating what would prove to be the decisive and only run of the contest.

The Mets mounted their most credible threat in the bottom of the ninth against Raisel Iglesias, but the rally never materialized. Francisco Lindor led off with a pop out that cost New York 8.5% in win probability, and Luis Robert Jr.'s flyout to end the inning registered as the single most consequential play of the game, a 31.6% win-probability swing that sealed Atlanta's victory. On the other side of the ledger, Luis Torrens had grounded out in the eighth off Dylan Lee for a 12.9% swing against the Mets, effectively extinguishing an earlier opportunity.

Robert Jr. finished as the game's top batter by WPA at plus-28.1%, though his minus-0.6 RE24 reflects that his impact was largely defensive in the context of run expectancy. On the mound, Chris Sale led all pitchers with a plus-23.8% WPA, followed closely by Dylan Lee at plus-23.3%, the two combining to bridge the gap to Iglesias's save opportunity. Christian Scott absorbed the loss despite posting a plus-20.6% WPA for New York, a measure of how effectively he limited damage even in a defeat defined by a single sixth-inning sequence.