Atlanta Braves at New York Mets: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 1 |
| NYM | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | - | 3 | 6 | 1 |
The Story
The New York Mets overcame an early deficit to defeat the Atlanta Braves 3-2 at Citi Field on July 29, 2026, completing a dramatic win-probability swing that saw the DiamondIQ model's estimate move from a 39 percent pre-game home win probability all the way to 100 percent by game's end. The game was scoreless through four innings before the Mets broke through in the bottom of the fifth, when Francisco Alvarez delivered a double off AJ Smith-Shawver that shifted win probability by 14.0 percent in New York's favor and staked the Mets to a 2-0 lead. Atlanta responded in the top of the sixth when Matt Olson launched a home run off Sean Manaea, a swing worth plus-17.9 percent win probability that erased the deficit and briefly gave the Braves momentum heading into the later innings.
The pivotal moment of the contest came in the bottom of the seventh, when Carson Benge doubled off Dylan Dodd for a 16.0 percent win-probability swing that pushed the Mets back ahead 3-2 and proved to be the decisive blow of the night. Atlanta's best chance to answer came in the top of the eighth, but Olson grounded into a double play off Luke Weaver, a sequence that cost Atlanta 11.6 percent in win probability and effectively sealed the outcome. Francisco Alvarez added a modest but meaningful groundout in the bottom of the eighth that further tightened the Mets' grip, contributing an additional 7.8 percent to New York's win probability.
Benge led all position players with a plus-19.0 percent WPA, while Alvarez finished close behind at plus-15.6 percent with a team-best plus-1.0 RE24, reflecting his consistent run-environment contributions throughout the night. Brett Baty contributed a plus-7.6 percent WPA effort to round out the Mets' key offensive contributors. On the pitching side, Devin Williams was the most impactful arm with a plus-15.2 percent WPA, followed by Weaver at plus-10.8 percent, whose eighth-inning work in inducing the Olson double play proved crucial. Manaea added plus-9.3 percent despite surrendering the Olson home run, holding the Braves in check across the remainder of his outing.