MLB Recap · July 28, 2026

Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Dodgers: Final Score & Recap

SEA7
Final
LAD6

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
SEA0103010207102
LAD1012100016130

The Story

The Seattle Mariners overcame a 67 percent pre-game home win probability assigned by the DiamondIQ model to defeat the Los Angeles Dodgers 7-6 at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium on July 28, 2026, completing a comeback that left the Dodgers with zero probability of winning by the final out. Seattle finished with 10 hits and two errors, while Los Angeles managed 13 hits without an error but could not hold its lead when it mattered most.

The two most decisive moments of the game separated themselves clearly in the win-probability ledger. Dominic Canzone delivered the game's single biggest swing in the top of the eighth inning, launching a home run off Alex Vesia that added 31.7 percentage points of win probability to Seattle's chances and gave the Mariners the margin they ultimately needed. Canzone had already done substantial damage in the top of the sixth, connecting on another home run off Justin Wrobleski for an additional 13.8 points of win probability, making him the night's most valuable offensive performer at plus-41.6 percent WPA and plus-2.3 RE24. Rob Refsnyder also went deep in the top of the fourth off Wrobleski, a swing worth plus-21.5 percent WPA and plus-2.2 RE24 that helped Seattle claw back against a Los Angeles offense that had responded with a Tommy Edman double in the bottom of the fourth, worth 14.0 points for the Dodgers. Mookie Betts produced the night's second-largest individual play by WPA in the bottom of the ninth, grounding out against Andrés Muñoz in a high-leverage moment that paradoxically registered plus-27.0 percent for the batting team's perspective as the Dodgers made it a one-run game, though it was not enough to complete the rally.

On the pitching side, Eduard Bazardo led Seattle's relievers with plus-13.3 percent WPA, followed by José A. Ferrer at plus-8.3 and Brock Stewart at plus-7.8, a collective bullpen performance that proved essential to protecting the late advantage. The Dodgers scored in six of nine innings but were held scoreless in the seventh and eighth, a two-inning stretch that allowed the Mariners to seize control. The DiamondIQ model's estimate moved from a strong pre-game lean toward Los Angeles all the way to zero percent by game's end, reflecting just how thoroughly Seattle's late-inning production reversed the night's trajectory.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025SEA bats firstFinalLAD win %SEA win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 67.1% → final 0%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Dominic Canzone Home Run
Top 8th · off Alex Vesia
+31.7%
Mookie Betts Groundout
Bot 9th · off Andrés Muñoz
+27.0%
Rob Refsnyder Home Run
Top 4th · off Justin Wrobleski
+21.5%
Tommy Edman Double
Bot 4th · off Luis Castillo
+14.0%
Dominic Canzone Home Run
Top 6th · off Justin Wrobleski
+13.8%

Top Batters by WPA

Dominic Canzone+41.6%+2.3 RE24
Mookie Betts+25.2%-0.4 RE24
Rob Refsnyder+22.7%+2.2 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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