Cleveland Guardians at Cincinnati Reds: Final Score & Recap

The Cleveland Guardians held off the Cincinnati Reds 6-5 at Great American Ball Park on July 27, 2026, surviving a late push from the home side to complete the win. The DiamondIQ model's estimate opened at 50 percent for Cincinnati before the game and closed at zero percent, a full reversal driven largely by the Guardians building a decisive early lead and then withstanding the Reds' comeback attempts over the final innings.

Cleveland struck quickly and decisively in the first inning, plating four runs to set the early tone, while Cincinnati answered with four of its own in the bottom of the fourth to pull even. The swing moment of the fourth came when Sal Stewart singled off Tim Herrin, a hit that carried a win-probability swing of plus 21.6 percent in the Reds' favor, and Edwin Arroyo added his own single off Slade Cecconi for another plus 14.6 percent swing as Cincinnati threatened to seize momentum entirely. Cleveland responded with a run in the fifth and another in the eighth to push back to a 6-5 advantage. The Reds' best chance to answer came in the eighth, when Edwin Arroyo struck out against Hunter Gaddis in a minus 18.7 percent moment that effectively stalled a Cincinnati rally. Closer Cade Smith then shut the door in the ninth, highlighted by JJ Bleday's flyout to end the game, a play that registered plus 27.0 percent for Cleveland's win probability as it closed the door on the Reds' final threat.

Sal Stewart led all position players by WPA, finishing at plus 31.5 percent with a RE24 of plus 3.0, anchoring Cincinnati's offensive push even in a losing effort. On the Cleveland side, Hunter Gaddis was the standout arm, posting plus 23.3 percent WPA with his critical work in the eighth, while Franco Aleman contributed plus 13.3 percent out of the bullpen. Chase DeLauter added plus 18.9 percent WPA to support the Guardians' cause at the plate. The DiamondIQ model leans toward Cleveland's pitching staff as the decisive factor, with Gaddis and Aleman neutralizing Cincinnati's lineup at critical junctures to preserve the one-run result.