Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals: Final Score & Recap

The Cincinnati Reds defeated the St. Louis Cardinals 5-3 in ten innings at Busch Stadium on July 26, 2026, erasing a game that the DiamondIQ model had opened with a 57 percent home win probability for St. Louis. Through nine innings the Cardinals held that advantage, but Cincinnati's offense erupted for three runs in the top of the tenth to pull away. The scoring through regulation was methodical and close, with the Cardinals netting a run in the second and third innings while the Reds answered in the third and fifth, leaving the game knotted heading into extra innings.

The decisive swing came in the top of the tenth, where Sal Stewart delivered a single off Matt Svanson that shifted win probability by plus-36.5 percent in Cincinnati's favor, the single largest play of the game by that measure. Nathaniel Lowe followed later in the inning with a single off Justin Bruihl that added another plus-26.6 percent, effectively closing the door on a St. Louis comeback. On the Cardinals' side, Lars Nootbaar's flyout in the bottom of the eighth represented a missed opportunity, costing St. Louis 14.3 percent in win probability. Cincinnati's bullpen then protected the lead, with Brock Burke recording a strikeout of JJ Wetherholt in the ninth that added plus-14.0 percent to the Reds' win probability.

Stewart finished as the top performer by WPA at plus-36.5 percent with a RE24 of plus-1.4, while Lowe posted plus-23.7 percent WPA and the game's best RE24 among position players at plus-1.8. José Fermín also contributed meaningfully at plus-19.5 percent WPA. On the pitching side, George Soriano led Cincinnati's staff at plus-13.5 percent WPA, with Ryne Stanek and Brock Burke each adding over ten percentage points as well. The DiamondIQ model's estimate of St. Louis's win probability fell from 57 percent before first pitch to zero by the final out.