San Diego Padres at Miami Marlins: Final Score & Recap

The San Diego Padres erased a two-run deficit and pulled away late to defeat the Miami Marlins 5-3 at loanDepot park on July 26, 2026, collecting 13 hits in the process. Miami had built a 3-1 lead through seven innings, and the DiamondIQ model's estimate had the Marlins' win probability sitting comfortably above 50 percent entering the night. That advantage evaporated in the top of the eighth, when San Diego put together the decisive offensive burst against Lake Bachar that effectively decided the contest.

The eighth inning was the game within the game. Manny Machado delivered the knockout blow with a home run off Bachar that shifted win probability by plus 26.2 percent in San Diego's favor, the single largest swing of the night. Jackson Merrill followed with another home run off the same pitcher, adding another plus 20.3 percent swing, and Luis Campusano extended the damage with an RBI single worth plus 14.1 percent. In a span of one half-inning, the Padres turned a two-run deficit into a multi-run lead and pushed Miami's win probability to near zero. A Luis Rengifo groundout into a double play in the top of the sixth, which had cost San Diego 10.5 percent in win probability off Cade Gibson, ultimately proved inconsequential given the eighth-inning eruption.

Machado finished as the game's most impactful player by a wide margin, posting a cumulative plus 32.6 percent WPA and a plus 2.3 RE24, while Merrill contributed plus 20.4 percent WPA. On the pitching side, Adrian Morejon led San Diego's relievers with plus 13.3 percent WPA, with Tyler Zuber and Cade Gibson also contributing positively. Marlins reliever Joe Mack, the final batter of the game, was retired on a strikeout by Mason Miller in the bottom of the ninth, a sequence worth plus 14.1 percent in win probability for San Diego and good for plus 11.3 percent WPA on the night for Mack from the defensive side of the ledger.