Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates: Final Score & Recap

The Pittsburgh Pirates took down the Chicago Cubs 8-7 at PNC Park on July 26, 2026, in a game that was largely decided by a furious stretch of early Pittsburgh offense. The DiamondIQ model entered the contest with the Pirates as a slight 49 percent home favorite, but that estimate climbed steadily toward certainty as the Pirates stacked runs in the second and third innings, finishing at 100 percent by the final out.

The decisive damage came in bursts against Cubs starter Jameson Taillon. In the bottom of the second, Shawn Ross launched a home run that shifted win probability by 13.3 percent in Pittsburgh's favor, followed shortly by an Esmerlyn Valdez home run worth another 7.7 percent. Taillon could not escape the third inning unscathed either, as Ryan O'Hearn connected for a home run that added 14.2 percent to the Pirates' win probability, the single most impactful play of the game. Those three blasts off Taillon essentially constructed Pittsburgh's margin before Chicago had a meaningful chance to respond. The Cubs did push back in the top of the fourth, when Pete Crow-Armstrong ripped a triple off Braxton Ashcraft to generate a 7.0 percent swing, and Chicago continued to scratch across runs through the ninth, including an Ian Happ single off Carmen Mlodzinski in the eighth that moved the needle 6.0 percent in Chicago's favor, but the deficit proved too deep to overcome.

By the individual numbers, O'Hearn was Pittsburgh's most valuable contributor, finishing with a WPA of plus-17.5 percent and an RE24 of plus-3.4. Ross added plus-12.0 percent WPA and Valdez contributed plus-10.6 percent WPA alongside a plus-1.6 RE24. On the pitching side, Mlodzinski led Pittsburgh's relievers at plus-2.8 percent WPA, with Mason Montgomery close behind at plus-2.4 percent, as the bullpen held enough of Taillon's early lead to secure the one-run victory.