San Diego Padres at Miami Marlins: Final Score & Recap

The San Diego Padres handed the Miami Marlins a 7-2 defeat at loanDepot park on July 25, 2026, erasing the DiamondIQ model's pre-game 54% home win probability down to zero by the final out. San Diego did its early damage in the third inning, where Ty France delivered the most consequential hit of the night, a single off Eury Pérez that swung win probability 15.3 points in the Padres' favor and opened a two-run frame. Fernando Tatis Jr. then grounded into a double play in the same inning, surrendering 8.0 percentage points back to Miami, but the damage had been done. The Padres added a run in the seventh on a Jackson Merrill double off Pérez worth 7.7 points of win probability, then broke the game open with a three-run eighth, highlighted by another France single, this one off Dax Fulton, adding a further 7.4 points. Miami's best threat came in the bottom of the fifth, where an Otto Lopez groundout ended the inning and cost the Marlins 6.2 percentage points of win probability against JP Sears.

France led all position players on the night with a cumulative WPA of plus-20.2 and a RE24 of plus-2.0, his two key singles serving as the primary offensive engine for San Diego. Jackson Merrill contributed plus-8.5 WPA and plus-1.0 RE24, while Esteury Ruiz added plus-7.6 WPA and plus-0.9 RE24. On the mound, JP Sears was the clear backbone of the victory, posting a team-high plus-22.0 WPA, with Yuki Matsui providing further relief value at plus-8.8 WPA. The DiamondIQ model's estimate of Miami's chances never meaningfully recovered after France's third-inning single, and San Diego controlled the contest from that point forward, collecting 11 hits against zero errors to close out a clean road win.