Arizona Diamondbacks at Washington Nationals: Final Score & Recap

The Arizona Diamondbacks edged the Washington Nationals 3-2 at Nationals Park on July 24, 2026, with Arizona's bullpen ultimately proving the difference. The DiamondIQ model opened the game with a 51 percent home win probability for Washington, but the Nationals could not convert their late opportunities, and that estimate fell to zero by the final out.

The game's decisive moments came in waves. Dylan Crews gave Washington a 2-2 tie in the fourth inning with a home run off Eduardo Rodriguez, a swing that shifted win probability 18.6 percentage points in the Nationals' favor. Arizona reclaimed the lead in the seventh when Geraldo Perdomo worked a walk off Tom Cosgrove, a plate appearance that moved the needle 11.5 points toward the Diamondbacks and set up the go-ahead run. Washington's best chance to answer came undone in the eighth, when Daylen Lile's flyout against Kevin Ginkel cost the Nationals 12.9 percentage points of win probability, and again in the ninth, when Keibert Ruiz's groundout against Paul Sewald closed the door with the single largest win-probability swing of the night at 31.6 points.

On the mound, Ginkel was Arizona's most impactful reliever, posting a 23.3 percent WPA contribution, with Zack Littell adding 13.7 and Orlando Ribalta contributing 13.3. Ruiz led all batters in WPA at plus-31.6 despite that figure reflecting the dramatic end of Washington's final rally, while Crews at plus-16.2 WPA and plus-1.1 RE24 was Washington's most productive offensive performer. Perdomo at plus-10.6 WPA and plus-0.5 RE24 represented Arizona's top offensive contributor, and the model's final estimate of zero percent for Washington underscored how thoroughly Arizona's relief corps controlled the game's closing innings.