San Diego Padres at Atlanta Braves: Final Score & Recap

The Atlanta Braves defeated the San Diego Padres 6-5 at Truist Park on July 23, 2026, in a game that hinged on a decisive fourth-inning burst that effectively flipped the contest. The DiamondIQ model entered the day favoring Atlanta at 64% and finished at 100% following a dominant four-run home half of the fourth. The Padres had staked an early advantage with three runs in the top of the second, but Atlanta answered with one run in the bottom half and then seized control with the fourth-inning eruption off Griffin Canning.

The pivotal sequence came in the bottom of the fourth, where Dominic Smith delivered a home run off Canning that added 31.0% to Atlanta's win probability, the single largest swing of the game by the DiamondIQ model's estimate. Ozzie Albies followed with a home run of his own off the same pitcher, contributing another 11.4% swing, and Atlanta's four-run frame turned a deficit into a lead they would not relinquish. Smith was the game's top performer by overall win-probability contribution, finishing at plus-20.2% WPA and plus-2.4 RE24, though his groundout in the second inning also represented a minus-9.3% swing that briefly stalled Atlanta's early momentum. Albies finished at plus-12.4% WPA and plus-1.0 RE24.

San Diego mounted a threat in the top of the eighth when Ty France hit a home run off Tyler Kinley to pull within one, a swing worth plus-18.1% win probability and the second-largest play of the game. France finished at plus-15.9% WPA and plus-1.1 RE24, making him the Padres' most impactful performer. However, Raisel Iglesias closed the door in the ninth, retiring Luis Rengifo on a strikeout that the DiamondIQ model measured as a minus-10.9% swing against San Diego. Iglesias finished as the game's top pitcher by WPA at plus-15.2%, with Dylan Dodd adding plus-7.2% and Yuki Matsui contributing plus-5.2% in support of the Atlanta win.