Detroit Tigers at Chicago Cubs: Final Score & Recap

The Detroit Tigers handed the Chicago Cubs a 5-1 defeat at Wrigley Field on July 22, 2026, overcoming a pregame environment that heavily favored the home side. The DiamondIQ model's estimate gave the Cubs a 63 percent chance of winning before first pitch, yet that edge eroded steadily and sat at zero percent by the final out. Detroit's offense was quiet through three innings before breaking the game open in the fourth, and their pitching staff controlled the Cubs lineup from start to finish, limiting Chicago to just four hits across nine innings.

The decisive moment came in the top of the fourth inning, when Hao-Yu Lee connected on a home run off Colin Rea that swung win probability 28.8 percentage points in Detroit's favor, the single largest play of the game by a wide margin. Riley Greene followed with a double in the same frame for an additional 6.9 percent swing, helping Detroit plate three runs in the inning to take a commanding 4-1 lead. Earlier in the third, Dillon Dingler's strikeout against Rea had represented the most damaging moment for the Tigers' cause, costing them 10.3 percentage points, though Detroit ultimately recovered. On the Chicago side, Michael Busch grounded into a double play in the sixth off Drew Sommers, a sequence that cost the Cubs 6.5 percent win probability and effectively ended any realistic path back into the game.

Hao-Yu Lee finished as the game's top performer by WPA at plus 28.6 percent with a RE24 of plus 2.0, while Spencer Torkelson contributed a plus 7.6 percent WPA and plus 1.6 RE24 to anchor the Detroit offensive effort. Ian Happ was the lone Cubs hitter to post a positive WPA at plus 5.1 percent. On the mound, Keider Montero led all pitchers with a plus 21.6 percent WPA, supported by Drew Sommers at plus 6.5 percent and Drew Anderson at plus 6.3 percent, as the Tigers' staff collectively neutralized a Cubs lineup that had entered the contest as a clear favorite.