New York Mets at Milwaukee Brewers: Final Score & Recap

The Milwaukee Brewers held off the New York Mets 4-3 at American Family Field on July 22, 2026, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate opening at a 73% pre-game home win probability for Milwaukee and closing at 100% by the final out. The decisive damage came in the bottom of the second inning, when Joey Ortiz ripped a triple off Christian Scott that shifted win probability 13.5 points in Milwaukee's favor, and Christian Yelich followed with a single that added another 7.8 points, staking the Brewers to a three-run frame that proved to be the foundation of the victory. Yelich returned in the bottom of the sixth with a triple off A.J. Minter worth 12.4 points of win probability, pushing Milwaukee's cushion back out after the Mets had trimmed the gap. The lone significant swing in New York's direction came from Brett Baty, whose solo home run off Logan Henderson in the top of the fifth registered a 10.9-point win-probability gain for the Mets, briefly keeping them within reach.

By individual contribution, Yelich was the game's most impactful offensive player at plus-18.8 WPA and plus-1.4 RE24, bookending the Brewers' two most consequential rallies. Ortiz finished at plus-17.0 WPA and led all hitters with a plus-2.2 RE24, reflecting how efficiently his triple converted run expectancy. Baty was the top Mets performer at plus-17.6 WPA and plus-0.9 RE24, though his efforts were ultimately insufficient against a Milwaukee bullpen that held firm. Aaron Ashby led all pitchers at plus-14.5 WPA, followed closely by Huascar Brazobán at plus-14.4 WPA, with Brazobán's performance highlighted by inducing Andrew Vaughn's double-play grounder in the bottom of the fifth that erased 13.0 points of Milwaukee win probability that had been briefly ceded. Abner Uribe added plus-8.1 WPA in relief as the Brewers closed out the Mets on a final line of 4 runs on 9 hits.