Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Guardians: Final Score & Recap

The Cleveland Guardians defeated the Minnesota Twins 5-2 at Progressive Field on July 21, 2026, a result the DiamondIQ model's estimate supported throughout, with Cleveland entering at a 59% pre-game home win probability that climbed to 100% by the final out. The Guardians built their lead in stages, scoring twice in the third, adding a run in the fourth, two more in the sixth, and one in the seventh, while Minnesota's offense managed just two runs on six hits with no errors.

The decisive sequence began in the bottom of the third, when Brayan Rocchio singled off Mike Paredes to deliver the game's single largest win-probability swing at plus 13.2 percentage points. That momentum carried into the top of the fourth, where a Royce Lewis field error off Parker Messick added 11.4 points in Minnesota's favor, briefly keeping the Twins within reach. Cleveland answered in the sixth when Kahlil Watson doubled off Paredes for an 8.2-point swing, effectively closing the door on any Twins comeback. A Chase DeLauter pop out in the fifth, costing Cleveland 7.4 percentage points, represented the Guardians' most damaging at-bat, while Travis Bazzana's single off Taylor Rogers in the seventh added 7.3 points and sealed the outcome.

Rocchio finished as the game's top offensive contributor by the DiamondIQ model's accounting, posting a plus 17.0% WPA and plus 1.3 RE24. Kody Clemens added plus 13.1% WPA and plus 0.5 RE24, while Royce Lewis contributed plus 11.3% WPA and plus 0.8 RE24 despite the error. On the mound, Hunter Gaddis led Cleveland's pitching staff with plus 8.9% WPA, followed by Kendry Rojas at plus 6.0% and Colin Holderman at plus 4.8%, a collective effort that held Minnesota to a quiet final line.