Cincinnati Reds at Seattle Mariners: Final Score & Recap

The Cincinnati Reds defeated the Seattle Mariners 4-2 at T-Mobile Park on July 21, 2026, overcoming a pre-game environment in which the DiamondIQ model's estimate gave Seattle a 58 percent chance of winning at home. The Reds built their lead incrementally, scoring in the first, fourth, and fifth innings before a Josh Naylor groundout in the bottom of the seventh against Brock Burke proved to be the game's single most damaging at-bat for Seattle, swinging win probability 14.5 percent in Cincinnati's favor and stalling what had been a potential Mariners rally. Weston Wilson then gave Seattle a brief measure of hope in the bottom of the seventh with a home run off Tejay Antone that shifted the window 10.9 percent toward the home side, and Julio Rodríguez kept the Mariners within reach in the eighth with a solo home run off Julian Garcia that represented the largest single positive swing of the night at plus 18.8 percent — briefly tightening what had been a comfortable Reds cushion.

Despite Rodríguez's moment, Cincinnati's pitching closed the door. Chase Burns led all pitchers with a remarkable plus 31.1 percent WPA contribution, anchoring the staff's performance across his innings of work. Julian Garcia finished plus 4.5 percent despite surrendering the Rodríguez home run, as Wilson's strikeout against him in the eighth — a swing of minus 12.9 percent against Seattle — effectively neutralized the damage. Emilio Pagán then induced a Dominic Canzone strikeout to open the ninth that added 14.4 percent to Cincinnati's win probability, securing the final margin. On the offensive side, Canzone led all batters at plus 21.6 percent WPA with a 0.1 RE24, while Rodríguez finished at plus 16.9 percent and a 0.8 RE24 despite pitching for the losing side. Eugenio Suárez contributed plus 10.8 percent WPA and 0.5 RE24, and the Reds finished with a clean error-free line of five hits, converting the Mariners' lone error into a 4-2 final.