St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Angels: Final Score & Recap

The Los Angeles Angels defeated the St. Louis Cardinals 5-1 on July 21, 2026, at Angel Stadium, a result the DiamondIQ model's estimate reflected emphatically as it moved from a 43 percent home win probability before first pitch to 100 percent by game's end. The Angels seized control in the opening frame, generating all five of their runs in the bottom of the first inning, making this a game decided almost before the Cardinals could answer. Jorge Soler's double off Matthew Liberatore in that first inning contributed a 3.2 percent swing in win probability, helping set the table for what became an insurmountable early deficit for St. Louis.

The win-probability ledger underscored just how thoroughly Los Angeles controlled the contest. On the Cardinals' side, the most consequential moment was a negative one: Blaze Jordan's lineout in the top of the second inning off Walbert Ureña represented a 12.5 percent drop in St. Louis's win probability, eliminating what might have been a path back into the game. Meanwhile, Jose Siri's strikeout against Liberatore in the bottom of the first registered a 11.5 percent swing in the Angels' favor, and Mike Trout's groundout into a double play in that same frame added another 11.0 percent, reflecting how even the Cardinals' few defensive bright spots came within a context already tilted heavily toward the home side.

Walbert Ureña was the story on the mound, posting a 23.9 percent WPA as the game's top performer by that measure, limiting St. Louis to one run on seven hits across his outing. Mitch Farris added 4.1 percent WPA in relief. For the Cardinals, Alec Burleson was the lone offensive contributor of note, picking up a single off Ureña in the sixth that generated a 5.6 percent WPA and 0.8 RE24, though it amounted to little against an Angels team that had long since secured the outcome.