Minnesota Twins at Chicago Cubs: Final Score & Recap

The Chicago Cubs defeated the Minnesota Twins 6-2 at Wrigley Field on July 18, 2026, a result the DiamondIQ model's estimate tracked methodically from a 61 percent pre-game home win probability all the way to certainty by the final out. Chicago seized control early and never relinquished it, with the game's pivotal damage concentrated in the second and third innings against Twins starter Taj Bradley.

The two most consequential swings of the afternoon belonged to the Cubs' bottom of the order. Miguel Amaya's double in the second inning off Bradley shifted win probability by plus 12.1 percent, the single largest play of the game, while Pedro Ramírez followed in the third with a double of his own worth plus 8.0 percent. Nico Hoerner then extended the third-inning rally with a single that added another 6.2 percent. The Twins generated their only significant positive swing in the top of the second when Kody Clemens launched a home run off Matthew Boyd for a plus 4.9 percent move, but Josh Bell's pop out in the third, costing Minnesota 4.5 percent win probability, illustrated how quickly the Twins' opportunities evaporated against Boyd.

On the performance ledger, Ramírez led all players with a WPA of plus 13.9 percent and a RE24 of plus 2.4, making him the game's most impactful contributor by the DiamondIQ model's accounting. Amaya finished at plus 10.7 percent WPA and Hoerner at plus 8.9 percent, giving Chicago three batters among the game's top performers. On the pitching side, Boyd paced all hurlers at plus 10.2 percent WPA, supported by Trent Thornton at plus 1.9 percent and Jacob Webb at plus 0.7 percent as Chicago's bullpen closed out the final innings cleanly.