Baltimore Orioles at Houston Astros: Final Score & Recap

The Baltimore Orioles defeated the Houston Astros 3-2 at Daikin Park on July 17, 2026, handing Houston a loss in which the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a home win fell from 54 percent before first pitch all the way to zero by the final out. The game was largely a low-scoring affair through seven innings, with Houston scoring once in the first and Baltimore answering with a run in the third to keep things even at one. The decisive moment came in the top of the eighth, when Taylor Ward connected on a home run off Bryan King that swung win probability 25.5 percent in Baltimore's favor, the single most impactful play of the contest. Adley Rutschman had set the stage just before with a double off King that added 11.8 percent to Baltimore's win probability, helping manufacture the go-ahead run that ultimately proved to be the difference.

Houston had opportunities to respond but could not capitalize. In the bottom of the eighth, Lucas Spence's flyout off Andrew Kittredge represented a 16.5 percent swing against the Astros, effectively deflating their best chance to retake the lead. The ninth inning brought similar frustration, as Christian Walker struck out against Tyler Wells in a moment that swung win probability 18.8 percent toward Baltimore, and Yordan Alvarez's flyout to close the game added another 10.7 percent in the Orioles' direction. Ward finished as the game's top performer by win probability added at plus 27.1 percent with a RE24 of plus 1.3, while on the pitching side Andrew Kittredge led all arms with plus 23.3 percent WPA, followed by Peter Lambert at plus 20.0 percent and Cam Sanders at plus 13.8 percent. Jeremy Peña was the brightest spot for Houston, posting plus 13.0 percent WPA and plus 1.1 RE24, but the Astros could not convert his contributions into the equalizer they needed.