Cleveland Guardians at Miami Marlins: Final Score & Recap

The Cleveland Guardians handed the Miami Marlins a 5-2 defeat at loanDepot park on July 12, 2026, handing the home side a result that moved the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Miami win from 55% before first pitch to 0% by the final out. Cleveland scored in the first inning and never relinquished the lead, adding runs in the fifth, seventh, and ninth to pull clear while holding Miami to a pair across nine innings.

The game's most consequential sequence came in the bottom of the second, where Joey Cantillo systematically dismantled a Marlins threat. A walk issued to Leo Jiménez shifted win probability 8.4 points toward Miami, but Cantillo responded by punching out Brian Navarreto in a strikeout that swung win probability 12.3 points back in Cleveland's favor, the single largest swing of the night. Cantillo finished as the top-performing pitcher by WPA at plus 24.9%, supported by Franco Aleman at plus 7.5% and Cade Gibson at plus 6.8%, as the Cleveland staff combined to limit Miami to eight hits and one error-aided opportunity. Xavier Edwards managed a third-inning single off Cantillo that generated a 9.0-point swing for the Marlins, but Cleveland's pitching left that threat stranded.

On the offensive side, Brayan Rocchio's fifth-inning home run off Michael Petersen was the defining blow, shifting win probability 11.2 points toward Cleveland and effectively breaking the game open. Kahlil Watson added a single in the seventh against Lake Bachar worth 9.9 points of win probability, extending the cushion further. Watson led Cleveland's position players at plus 9.0% WPA and plus 0.5 RE24, while Edwards paced Miami at plus 7.3% WPA and plus 0.9 RE24 in a losing effort. Cleveland's 11-hit, zero-error performance stood in clean contrast to Miami's lone error, reflecting a disciplined road effort from the Guardians.