Toronto Blue Jays at San Diego Padres: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 1 |
| SD | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | 5 | 7 | 0 |
The Story
San Diego edged Toronto 5-4 at Petco Park on July 12, 2026, in a game that turned dramatically in the eighth inning after the Blue Jays had appeared to seize control. The DiamondIQ model opened with a 57 percent pre-game home win probability for the Padres, and by the final out that figure had reached 100 percent. Toronto drew first blood with a run in the first, then Ernie Clement delivered the game's first major swing in the fourth, connecting on a home run off Germán Márquez that added 19.1 percent to Toronto's win probability and pushed the Blue Jays to a 3-0 lead at the time. Jonatan Clase kept Toronto's eighth-inning momentum alive with a single off Adrian Morejon worth 17.9 percent in added win probability, making it a 4-3 Toronto advantage heading into the bottom half.
The bottom of the eighth inning was where San Diego reclaimed the game entirely, and Jeff Hoffman bore the brunt of it. Manny Machado began the rally with a single that added 19.1 percent to the Padres' win probability, immediately erasing Toronto's lead and tying the swing ledger. Xander Bogaerts followed with a single worth 8.6 percent, and Ty France delivered the go-ahead blow with a sacrifice fly that added another 11.9 percent, giving San Diego the 5-4 lead it would not relinquish. Machado finished as the game's most valuable offensive contributor at plus-25.6 percent WPA and plus-1.6 RE24, while France posted plus-15.5 percent WPA and Clase added plus-14.7 percent on the Toronto side.
On the mound, Mason Miller was the Padres' most impactful arm, contributing plus-15.2 percent WPA, with Tyler Rogers adding plus-8.3 percent and Kyle Hart contributing plus-7.1 percent in support. The Blue Jays finished with nine hits to San Diego's seven but committed one error and could not overcome the bullpen collapse in the eighth. The DiamondIQ model leans toward crediting the Padres' late-inning offensive burst, particularly Machado's clutch single, as the decisive turning point in a game that shifted its full weight to San Diego in a matter of plate appearances.