New York Yankees at Washington Nationals: Final Score & Recap

The New York Yankees defeated the Washington Nationals 4-2 at Nationals Park on July 11, 2026, in a game that remained tightly contested deep into the evening before a stunning eighth-inning eruption settled the outcome. Washington had taken a 2-0 lead after the first inning and held it through seven frames, a margin that left the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Nationals win sitting within reach. That changed entirely in the top of the eighth, when the Yankees strung together three home runs off two Washington relievers to seize control and never relinquish it.

The decisive sequence unfolded against Clayton Beeter, who surrendered back-to-back home runs to Trent Grisham and Paul Goldschmidt. Grisham's blast was the single most impactful play of the game, swinging win probability by 33.3 percentage points in New York's favor, while Goldschmidt's shot added another 16.7 points, effectively erasing Washington's advantage in a matter of pitches. Ryan McMahon then connected off Orlando Ribalta for a third home run in the inning, a swing worth an additional 13.7 points of win probability that pushed the Yankees to their 4-2 advantage. In the ninth, Luis García Jr.'s groundout against David Bednar moved the needle 12.0 points toward New York's final victory, reflecting how thoroughly the Nationals' chances had collapsed.

Among position players, Grisham finished as the top performer by WPA at plus-33.5 percent with a RE24 of plus-1.3, followed by Ben Rice at plus-12.6 percent and plus-1.0, and McMahon at plus-11.3 percent and plus-0.9. On the pitching side, Miles Mikolas led all hurlers with a WPA of plus-25.1 percent, supported by Fernando Cruz at plus-13.3 and Tom Cosgrove at plus-11.8, as the Yankee staff locked down a Washington lineup that had done its damage early and found nothing more thereafter. The DiamondIQ model, which opened with a 48 percent home win probability, closed at zero.