Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds: Final Score & Recap

The Chicago Cubs defeated the Cincinnati Reds 5-3 at Great American Ball Park on July 11, 2026, handing Cincinnati a loss that the DiamondIQ model's estimate had assigned a 44 percent pre-game probability of avoiding. The Cubs were held scoreless through three innings before breaking through in the fourth, when the Reds grabbed a 2-0 lead. Chicago began chipping away in the fifth and then took control with a pivotal sixth inning. Ian Happ delivered a double off Caleb Ferguson that shifted win probability 15.5 percentage points in Chicago's favor, and Carson Kelly followed with a home run off Nick Lodolo worth 13.6 percentage points, giving the Cubs the lead. Cincinnati answered in the bottom half when JJ Bleday connected on a home run off Drew Pomeranz to reclaim some ground, a swing worth 14.8 percentage points for the Reds. However, Jose Trevino grounded into a double play in that same inning off Pomeranz, a sequence that swung probability 12.2 points back toward Chicago and halted any Cincinnati momentum.

The decisive blow came in the top of the seventh, when Alex Bregman launched a home run off Julian Garcia, a single swing that added 26.7 percentage points to Chicago's win probability and effectively settled the outcome. Bregman finished as the game's top offensive performer by WPA at plus-26.4 percent with a RE24 of plus-1.8, making him the clear catalyst of the Cubs' victory. Carson Kelly contributed a plus-13.8 percent WPA and Eugenio Suarez added plus-9.8 percent with a RE24 of plus-1.4, rounding out a balanced Cubs attack that produced nine hits without an error. On the pitching side, Jacob Webb led Chicago's relievers with plus-13.3 percent WPA, supported by Caleb Thielbar at plus-8.8 and Pierce Johnson at plus-3.4, as the Cubs' bullpen locked down a three-run lead over the final innings. The DiamondIQ model's estimate closed at zero percent for Cincinnati, reflecting how thoroughly Chicago controlled the game's decisive stretches.