Toronto Blue Jays at San Diego Padres: Final Score & Recap

San Diego held off Toronto 8-7 at Petco Park on July 11, 2026, in a back-and-forth contest that saw the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a home win begin at 56 percent before closing at 100 percent. The Blue Jays drew first blood with a four-run second inning, and Toronto continued to threaten throughout, but the Padres built enough of a cushion in the early and middle innings to survive a late push. San Diego scored two in the first, two more in the third, and one in the fourth before Toronto clawed back with three in the sixth, setting up the game's most pivotal sequence.

The swing play of the night came in the top of the sixth, when Vladimir Guerrero Jr. launched a home run off Bradgley Rodriguez that shifted win probability 30.1 percentage points in Toronto's favor, briefly making the game feel genuinely competitive again. But the Padres answered in the bottom half, where Ty France went deep off Mason Fluharty for a swing of plus 15.2 percent. Earlier in the game, Sung-Mun Song's single off Adam Macko in the bottom of the third had already moved the needle 17.2 points San Diego's way. Toronto's chances further eroded in the final frames, with Ernie Clement grounding into a double play in the eighth at minus 11.6 percent and Kazuma Okamoto striking out to end the ninth at minus 10.9 percent.

France led all batters with a plus 24.0 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus 0.8, while Song contributed plus 16.6 percent WPA and a game-high plus 1.5 RE24. Guerrero finished at plus 14.9 percent WPA with a RE24 of plus 2.1 despite ending up on the losing side. On the mound, Matt Waldron paced San Diego's staff at plus 15.4 percent WPA, with Mason Miller adding plus 15.2 percent by closing out the ninth and Adrian Morejon contributing plus 10.8 percent in the eighth. The DiamondIQ model leans toward the Padres' bullpen as the defining factor, with Miller and Morejon combining to extinguish Toronto's final threats and preserve the one-run victory.