Los Angeles Angels at Minnesota Twins: Final Score & Recap

The Minnesota Twins defeated the Los Angeles Angels 5-3 at Target Field on July 11, 2026, a result that aligned closely with the DiamondIQ model's estimate, which opened with a 63% pre-game home win probability and closed at 100% in favor of Minnesota. The Twins struck first and most decisively in the bottom of the second inning, where Royce Lewis launched a home run off Ryan Johnson, a swing the DiamondIQ model credited with a +11.5% win probability shift. Minnesota extended its advantage in the bottom of the seventh when Alan Roden delivered a single off Mitch Farris worth +13.3% in win probability, followed shortly by another Royce Lewis double off Farris that added a further +9.2%. The Angels' most meaningful response came in the top of the third, when Mike Trout doubled off Joe Ryan for a +10.2% swing, and the top of the seventh, when Nolan Schanuel singled off Tommy Nance to account for the game's largest individual play at +15.7%, pulling Los Angeles momentarily back into contention before Minnesota closed the door.

Royce Lewis finished as the game's most impactful offensive performer, accumulating a combined +21.0% win probability added and a +1.9 RE24 across his home run and double. Alan Roden followed at +15.9% WPA and +1.6 RE24, while Schanuel led Angel contributors at +14.6% WPA despite the team's ultimate defeat. On the pitching side, Woo-Suk Go led Minnesota's staff with +8.1% WPA, followed by Yoendrys Gómez at +6.3% and starter Joe Ryan at +5.0%. Los Angeles finished with ten hits against nine for Minnesota, but the Angels' inability to convert that slight hits advantage into runs in the middle innings proved the margin. The Twins' run distribution, concentrated in the second and seventh, gave them enough cushion to absorb the Angels' scattered offensive bursts and secure the win.