Philadelphia Phillies at Detroit Tigers: Final Score & Recap

The Detroit Tigers routed the Philadelphia Phillies 10-2 at Comerica Park on July 10, 2026, turning what began as a close contest into a comfortable wire-to-wire victory. The DiamondIQ model entered the game giving Detroit a 46% chance of winning, but that estimate climbed steadily through the middle innings and ultimately reached 100% as the Tigers pulled away with a five-run sixth and a three-run seventh.

The decisive turning point came in the bottom of the third, when Kevin McGonigle launched a home run off Aaron Nola that shifted win probability by 19.1 points in Detroit's favor, the single largest swing of the game. Philadelphia had briefly grabbed momentum in the top of that same inning when Derek Hill connected on a solo home run off Jack Flaherty for a 10.5-point swing, and Hill added a single in the fourth for another 8.9-point move. But those Phillies contributions proved insufficient against a Detroit offense that poured it on in the sixth. Eduardo Valencia's single off Tim Mayza registered a 14.5-point swing, and James Outman followed with a triple off the same pitcher for 14.1 points, effectively sealing the outcome before the seventh inning extended the margin further.

Among individual performers, Hill was Philadelphia's lone bright spot, finishing with a combined WPA of plus-20.4 and a RE24 of plus-1.9 on a night when the Phillies managed just four hits. For Detroit, McGonigle led all batters with a plus-16.2 WPA and plus-1.1 RE24, while Eduardo Valencia contributed plus-11.6 WPA and plus-1.0 RE24. On the mound, Jack Flaherty paced Detroit's pitching staff with a plus-9.1 WPA, keeping the Phillies offense largely in check across his outing. Jacob Waguespack and Drew Sommers each added plus-0.7 WPA in relief to close out a dominant Tigers performance.