Toronto Blue Jays at San Diego Padres: Final Score & Recap

The Toronto Blue Jays handed the San Diego Padres a 5-3 defeat at Petco Park on July 10, 2026, erasing a two-run San Diego lead built in the first inning and never relinquishing control after a decisive fifth. The DiamondIQ model opened the night favoring the home side at 55 percent and closed at zero, a complete reversal driven almost entirely by a pair of pivotal innings in which Toronto's offense dismantled the Padres pitching staff.

The single most consequential moment of the game came in the top of the fifth, when Kazuma Okamoto connected on a home run off Jhony Brito that swung win probability 29.2 percent in Toronto's favor. That blow capped a four-run inning that turned a deficit into a commanding lead. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. contributed a single in that same frame off Brito, adding another 8.9 percent to Toronto's probability. The groundwork had been laid in the fourth, when Alejandro Kirk doubled off JP Sears to push the DiamondIQ model 13.7 percent toward the Blue Jays. Okamoto finished as the game's top performer by both WPA and RE24, posting a plus-25.7 percent and plus-2.3 respectively, while Guerrero Jr. at plus-12.5 and Kirk at plus-12.0 rounded out a three-man offensive core that proved unmanageable for San Diego.

On the mound, Jeff Hoffman led Toronto's pitching staff with plus-6.3 percent WPA, while Chad Dallas contributed plus-6.0 for the Blue Jays despite San Diego's Ty France doubling off him in the sixth to add 7.5 percent for the Padres. Tyler Rogers chipped in plus-5.2 percent to help close out the game, with Xander Bogaerts grounding out in the ninth off Louis Varland in a sequence that added 11.6 percent to San Diego's probability but proved too little as Toronto secured the final 5-3 margin.