Los Angeles Angels at Minnesota Twins: Final Score & Recap

The Los Angeles Angels defeated the Minnesota Twins 4-3 at Target Field on July 10, 2026, handing the home side a loss despite the DiamondIQ model's estimate giving Minnesota a 62 percent pre-game win probability. The Angels built their lead with a pair of runs in the fourth and two more in the fifth, then held off a Twins rally in the sixth before closing out the game without a single error across nine innings.

The decisive swings of win probability came late and ran in both directions. Brooks Lee provided the biggest boost for Minnesota with a double off Samy Natera Jr. in the sixth that added 16.2 percent to the Twins' win probability, and Ryan Jeffers followed with another double off Natera in the seventh worth 14.0 percent. But the Twins could not convert those opportunities into enough runs, and Victor Caratini's groundout off Sam Bachman in the eighth swung the game 16.5 percent back toward Los Angeles. In the ninth, Kirby Yates induced a lineout from Kody Clemens and limited Trevor Larnach's double to a 17.0 percent swing that came too late, as the Angels preserved the one-run margin. Lee finished as the top batter by the DiamondIQ model's estimate, posting a 24.5 percent WPA and 1.5 RE24, while Bachman led all pitchers at 23.3 percent WPA, with Andrew Morris and Grayson Rodriguez each contributing double-digit figures on the mound to secure the Angels' road victory.