Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twins: Final Score & Recap

The Minnesota Twins edged the Cleveland Guardians 6-5 at Target Field on July 8, 2026, in a game that remained tight through eight innings before a walk-off single in the bottom of the ninth sealed the victory. The DiamondIQ model entered the game giving Minnesota a 53% home win probability, a figure that climbed gradually through a series of lead changes before reaching 100% on the final play.

The fourth inning was the game's first major turning point. Brayan Rocchio gave Cleveland a lead with a home run off Connor Prielipp, a swing that added 17.5% to the Guardians' win probability and set the tone for what became a back-and-forth contest. Minnesota answered quickly, and the two clubs traded two-run exchanges in the seventh inning as well. Chase DeLauter's single off Taylor Rogers added 16.3% for Cleveland, but Brooks Lee's walk off Erik Sabrowski countered with a 14.7% swing in Minnesota's favor. Lee had a chance to extend that advantage in the eighth but flied out against Cade Smith, a play that cost the Twins 14.3% in win probability and kept the game level heading to the ninth.

Alan Roden ultimately decided matters, lining a walk-off single off Matt Festa that produced the largest single win-probability swing of the game at plus 33.4%. Among position players, Roden finished with a cumulative WPA of plus 26.6%, while Kody Clemens contributed plus 23.7% and Luke Keaschall added plus 22.1%, giving Minnesota its most productive offensive contributors by that measure. On the pitching side, Cade Smith was the model's top-valued arm despite surrendering the game-winning hit, finishing with a WPA of plus 30.5% on the strength of his eighth-inning work, with Yoendrys Gómez and Kody Funderburk adding plus 13.5% and plus 10.6%, respectively.