Philadelphia Phillies at Cincinnati Reds: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| CIN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
The Story
The Philadelphia Phillies defeated the Cincinnati Reds 4-1 at Great American Ball Park on July 7, 2026, securing a road victory that the DiamondIQ model's estimate never seriously threatened after the third inning. Cincinnati entered the game with a 44 percent pre-game win probability according to the DiamondIQ model, but that figure collapsed to zero by the final out. The Phillies scored all three of their early runs in the third inning, while the Reds managed only a single run across nine frames against a Phillies pitching staff that controlled the game from the outset.
The decisive moment came in the top of the third when Kyle Schwarber connected on a home run off Andrew Abbott, a swing that shifted win probability by 17.4 percent in Philadelphia's favor. Schwarber finished as the game's top batter by WPA at plus-19.1 percent with a RE24 of plus-1.7, making him the clear offensive catalyst. Cincinnati's Eugenio Suárez provided the Reds' most significant moment when he launched a home run off Zack Wheeler in the bottom of the seventh, a plus-11.9 percent swing that briefly tightened the contest. However, Suárez's eighth-inning strikeout against Jonathan Bowlan registered as a minus-11.3 percent swing for Cincinnati, effectively extinguishing that rally. Elly De La Cruz drew a walk off Orion Kerkering in the eighth for a plus-6.9 percent bump, but TJ Friedl's strikeout against Jhoan Duran to close out the ninth sealed Philadelphia's advantage.
On the mound, Zack Wheeler was the game's most impactful pitcher, posting a plus-20.4 percent WPA despite surrendering Suárez's seventh-inning home run. Jonathan Bowlan followed with a plus-11.3 percent performance out of the bullpen, his strikeout of Suárez serving as the pivotal out of the eighth inning. Justin Crawford added plus-4.8 percent WPA at the plate and Ivan Johnson contributed plus-4.1 percent, rounding out a balanced Phillies effort that held Cincinnati to five hits and no errors across nine innings.