Chicago Cubs at Baltimore Orioles: Final Score & Recap

The Chicago Cubs defeated the Baltimore Orioles 5-2 at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on July 7, 2026, handing Baltimore a loss in a game the DiamondIQ model had given the home side a 44 percent chance of winning before first pitch. The Cubs scored in four separate innings, plating a run in the third, two in the fifth, one in the seventh, and one more in the eighth to build an insurmountable lead. Baltimore managed only two runs, both coming in the bottom of the seventh, and finished with six hits against a Cubs pitching staff that proved difficult to solve for much of the night.

The game's most consequential sequence came in the fifth inning, where Chicago did the bulk of its damage against Shane Baz. Miguel Amaya delivered the biggest swing of the evening with a double that shifted win probability by plus 10.0 percent, and Pete Crow-Armstrong followed with a single worth plus 7.3 percent, both at the expense of Baz. Amaya's earlier production in the third, where Alex Bregman singled off Baz for a plus 8.5 percent swing, had already established the tone against the Baltimore starter. Baltimore's most promising counter came in the seventh when Adley Rutschman singled off Jacob Webb for a plus 8.5 percent swing, but the Orioles could not sustain that momentum beyond two runs. Dansby Swanson then put the game away in the eighth with a single off Anthony Nunez that added another 8.8 percent to Chicago's win probability.

Individually, Amaya was the game's standout contributor at plus 12.2 percent WPA and plus 1.4 RE24, followed closely by Bregman at plus 11.5 percent WPA and plus 1.1 RE24, with Swanson adding plus 9.7 percent WPA and plus 0.9 RE24 to round out the Cubs' offensive leadership. On the mound, Matthew Boyd was the clear difference-maker, finishing with a plus 24.8 percent WPA that anchored the Cubs' pitching effort. Tyler Ferguson contributed plus 5.2 percent out of the bullpen, with Nick Raquet adding plus 0.7 percent as Chicago closed out the win.