Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals: Final Score & Recap

The Milwaukee Brewers edged the St. Louis Cardinals 4-3 at Busch Stadium on July 6, 2026, completing a comeback that hinged almost entirely on a four-run seventh inning and a dominant closer performance in the ninth. St. Louis had carried a 3-0 lead into the seventh, and the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a home win had been favorable for much of the evening, with the Cardinals entering the night at a 44 percent pre-game win probability. Milwaukee erased that advantage in a single frame, and the model's estimate for a Cardinals win fell to zero by the final out.

The decisive seventh inning unfolded against a pair of Cardinals relievers and produced four runs through a series of well-timed hits. Brice Turang opened the rally with a single off Ryne Stanek, a play that shifted win probability 17.3 points in Milwaukee's favor. Ryan Fernandez then surrendered back-to-back doubles to David Hamilton and Sal Frelick, worth 13.8 and 13.4 percentage points respectively, turning a deficit into a lead. Hamilton finished as one of the game's most impactful offensive contributors, posting a WPA of plus-12.8 and an RE24 of plus-1.0.

From there, Milwaukee's bullpen protected the one-run advantage through two tense innings. Chad Patrick was the most valuable arm on either side, finishing with a WPA of plus-33.0, which included navigating a threatening situation in the eighth when José Fermín's flyout represented a swing of minus-12.9 points for St. Louis. Dustin May added plus-20.1 WPA in his outing, and Trevor Megill closed the game by striking out Bryan Torres in the bottom of the ninth — a play that shifted 27.0 percentage points toward Milwaukee and sealed the Cardinals' loss. Gordon Graceffo contributed plus-11.0 WPA for St. Louis in a losing effort.