Philadelphia Phillies at Kansas City Royals: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| KC | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | 5 | 8 | 1 |
The Story
The Kansas City Royals defeated the Philadelphia Phillies 5-2 at Kauffman Stadium on July 5, 2026, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a home win moving from 39% before first pitch all the way to 100% by the game's conclusion. Kansas City scored twice in the first inning and added a run in the fifth before delivering the decisive blow in the eighth, while Philadelphia managed single runs in the fifth and seventh but never seriously threatened to overturn the Royals' advantage.
The single most consequential moment of the game, by the DiamondIQ model's accounting, came in the bottom of the eighth when Salvador Perez drove a double off Kyle Backhus, a hit that swung win probability by 18.5 points and effectively closed the door on any Philadelphia comeback. Perez had already made his presence felt much earlier, as his strikeout to end the first inning represented a 7.3-point swing in Kansas City's favor off Aaron Nola, underscoring how the Royals benefited from keeping Philadelphia off the board early. On the Philadelphia side, Bryson Stott's groundout into a double play in the second inning cost the Phillies 11.4 points of win probability against Luinder Avila, and despite a Stott triple in the fifth that offered a 7.8-point swing, the Phillies could never fully recover. Justin Crawford contributed an 8.4-point swing via fielder's choice in the seventh to briefly keep Philadelphia's hopes alive, though it proved insufficient.
Perez finished as the game's top performer by the DiamondIQ model's metrics at plus-23.1 WPA and plus-1.1 RE24, with Bobby Witt Jr. adding plus-12.9 WPA and Crawford contributing plus-8.2 WPA for his late effort. On the pitching side, Luinder Avila led all pitchers at plus-21.0 WPA, limiting the Phillies across his outing despite the Stott triple, with Daniel Lynch IV adding plus-10.8 WPA in support. The DiamondIQ model leans toward crediting Avila's performance and the Perez double as the twin pillars of a Kansas City victory that was more commanding than the final margin suggests.