Baltimore Orioles at Cincinnati Reds: Final Score & Recap

Cincinnati held off Baltimore at Great American Ball Park on July 5, 2026, claiming a 3-2 victory that moved the DiamondIQ model's estimate from a 54% pre-game home-win probability all the way to 100% by the final out. The game was scoreless through four innings before the Reds broke through in the fifth, where Spencer Steer delivered the decisive blow — a home run off Kyle Bradish that carried an +18.6% win-probability swing and stood as the single most impactful play of the afternoon. Baltimore managed a run in the sixth on a Coby Mayo single off Nick Lodolo (+10.1% WP), briefly cutting into the deficit, but a Jeremiah Jackson strikeout in that same half-inning erased the threat and cost Baltimore 11.5 percentage points of win probability. Cincinnati then extended to a two-run cushion in the eighth when Sal Stewart doubled, also off Bradish, adding another +12.2% swing that effectively sealed the outcome.

Baltimore mustered a run in the ninth but couldn't complete the comeback, with Adley Rutschman's lineout off Emilio Pagán registering as a -11.5% WP event that closed the door on the rally. On the individual ledger, Steer finished as the game's top offensive contributor at +15.7% WPA and +1.3 RE24, while Stewart added +8.3% WPA and Mayo led Baltimore's bats at +7.1% WPA despite the loss. Nick Lodolo was the most valuable arm by WPA at +15.5%, followed by Tejay Antone (+10.8%) and Brock Burke (+8.5%), as Cincinnati's bullpen protected the slim margin through the final innings. Baltimore finished with seven hits against five for the Reds, but the Orioles' inability to convert in key moments allowed Cincinnati to secure the win with clean defense — neither side committed an error across the full nine innings.