Miami Marlins at Athletics: Final Score & Recap

The Miami Marlins held off a late Athletics rally to win 9-8 at Sutter Health Park on July 5, 2026, in a game that saw the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a home victory fall from 46% before first pitch all the way to 0% by the final out. Miami built its lead methodically, scoring in each of the first three innings and adding two more in the sixth to take a commanding advantage into the late stages. The Athletics mounted a significant threat in the bottom of the eighth, when Jonah Heim's home run off Lake Bachar shifted win probability by 7.5 percentage points and kept Oakland alive, and a five-run frame made the deficit suddenly manageable heading into the ninth.

The final inning was where the game's most dramatic swings occurred. Lawrence Butler's double off Pete Fairbanks moved the Athletics' win probability up 7.6 percentage points, and with the tying and go-ahead runs in scoring position, the moment carried genuine tension. However, Joshua Kuroda-Grauer's strikeout represented a 7.9-point swing back toward Miami, and Brian Serven's groundout to end the game was the single most consequential play of the contest, a 27.0-point win-probability swing that closed out Oakland's comeback bid and secured the Marlins' one-run victory.

Among individual performers, Brian Serven finished as the game's top batter by WPA at plus-33.3%, a figure driven largely by his role in strand situations and that final at-bat. Jonah Heim posted plus-12.3% WPA and a RE24 of plus-4.2, making him Oakland's most impactful offensive contributor. On the mound, Eury Pérez led all pitchers with plus-17.8% WPA, followed by Michael Petersen at plus-11.8%, as Miami's pitching staff collectively did enough to strand the Athletics one run short despite surrendering eight and giving up sixteen hits to none allowed in errors.