St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs: Final Score & Recap

The Chicago Cubs defeated the St. Louis Cardinals 6-4 at Wrigley Field on July 5, 2026, in a game that remained largely dormant through five innings before a chaotic sixth frame decided the outcome. The DiamondIQ model opened the day estimating a 56 percent probability of a Cubs victory, a figure that climbed to 100 percent by the final out.

The game's central moment came in the top of the sixth, when Cardinals outfielder Jordan Walker launched a home run off Tyler Ferguson, a swing that shifted win probability by plus-34.5 percent in St. Louis's favor and briefly made it the most consequential play of the afternoon. That advantage proved short-lived. Chicago answered in the bottom half against reliever Matt Svanson with a four-run rally that erased the deficit entirely. Dansby Swanson's fielders choice was the pivot point, adding plus-19.4 percent win probability for the Cubs, followed by a Nico Hoerner single worth plus-10.1 percent and a Pedro Ramirez sacrifice fly at plus-9.8 percent. The Cardinals added a run in the eighth but never seriously threatened. By WPA, Walker finished as the game's top offensive contributor at plus-31.8 percent despite being on the losing side, while Swanson led Chicago at plus-23.6 percent. On the mound, Javier Assad was the Cubs' most valuable arm, posting plus-21.9 percent WPA, with Jacob Webb adding plus-10.3 percent in relief. St. Louis committed two errors against none for Chicago, a disparity reflected in the final margin.