Milwaukee Brewers at Arizona Diamondbacks: Final Score & Recap

The Arizona Diamondbacks held off the Milwaukee Brewers 4-3 at Chase Field on July 4, 2026, overcoming an early three-run deficit to secure the win. The DiamondIQ model entered the game giving Arizona just a 42 percent chance of winning at home, but that figure climbed to 100 percent by the final out as the D-backs chipped away and ultimately pulled ahead.

Milwaukee built its lead in the first inning, but Arizona's most consequential moments came late. The Brewers extended their advantage in the fifth on a Garrett Mitchell double off Merrill Kelly that shifted win probability by plus 10.4 percent, followed immediately by a Christian Yelich home run off Kelly that swung things another plus 14.2 percent in Milwaukee's favor. Arizona began clawing back in the eighth when Ildemaro Vargas laced a double off Jared Koenig, the single biggest positive swing for the D-backs on the night at plus 12.3 percent. Milwaukee's Joey Ortiz grounded into a double play in the top of the eighth off Juan Morillo, a minus 11.6 percent swing that effectively ended any late Brewers threat.

Vargas led all position players by WPA at plus 10.0 with a RE24 of plus 0.9, while Yelich and Mitchell paced Milwaukee's offensive contributions at plus 8.4 and plus 8.1 respectively. On the mound, Craig Yoho was the model's top-rated pitcher at plus 13.2 percent WPA, followed by Morillo at plus 10.8 and Kelly at plus 10.4, the latter a notable figure given the runs he surrendered, reflecting the leverage of his otherwise effective outing. The DiamondIQ model leans toward Arizona's bullpen as the decisive factor in securing the narrow victory.