MLB Recap · July 3, 2026

Miami Marlins at Athletics: Final Score & Recap

MIA12
Final
ATH5

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
MIA61000102212110
ATH002300000591

The Story

The Miami Marlins dismantled the Athletics 12-5 at Sutter Health Park on July 3, 2026, scoring six runs in the opening inning and never relinquishing control. The DiamondIQ model's estimate opened with a 48 percent home win probability for Oakland, but that figure collapsed almost immediately and closed at zero percent by game's end. Miami finished with 11 hits and committed no errors, while the Athletics managed nine hits but were undone by an error and an inability to contain the Marlins' early surge.

The first two innings defined the game's trajectory. The most damaging swing in win-probability terms came in the bottom of the second, when Jeff McNeil's flyout off Tyler Phillips cost Oakland 11.4 percentage points of win probability, a reflection of how badly the Athletics needed to respond and failed to do so. Joshua Kuroda-Grauer's forceout in the bottom of the first, also off Phillips, erased another 10.6 points. On the Miami side, Heriberto Hernández's strikeout in the top of the second gained 10.6 points of win probability for the Marlins, and Leo Jiménez's strikeout to open the first added 9.6 points, both off Jack Perkins. A Nick Kurtz walk in the bottom of the fourth represented Oakland's most constructive moment, adding 10.4 points, but the Athletics could not convert the opportunity into a sustained rally.

Among individual performers, Kyle Stowers led all batters with a WPA of plus-16.9 and a RE24 of plus-3.0, making him the clearest driver of Miami's offensive output. Nick Kurtz followed at plus-13.0 WPA and plus-2.2 RE24, and Henry Bolte contributed plus-10.6 WPA. In the bullpen, Tyler Zuber, Lake Bachar, and Calvin Faucher posted WPA figures of plus-6.6, plus-6.3, and plus-6.0 respectively, helping Miami close out the game cleanly after the early damage was done.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025MIA bats firstFinalATH win %MIA win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 47.8% → final 0%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Jeff McNeil Flyout
Bot 2nd · off Tyler Phillips
-11.4%
Bot 1st · off Tyler Phillips
-10.6%
Heriberto Hernández Strikeout
Top 2nd · off Jack Perkins
+10.6%
Nick Kurtz Walk
Bot 4th · off Michael Petersen
+10.4%
Leo Jiménez Strikeout
Top 1st · off Jack Perkins
+9.6%

Top Batters by WPA

Kyle Stowers+16.9%+3.0 RE24
Nick Kurtz+13.0%+2.2 RE24
Henry Bolte+10.6%+0.7 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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