St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 0 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 17 | 1 |
| CHC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 1 |
The Story
The St. Louis Cardinals dismantled the Chicago Cubs 17-1 at Wrigley Field on July 3, 2026, in one of the most lopsided results of the season. The DiamondIQ model had entered the game giving the Cubs a 56 percent home win probability, but that figure collapsed almost immediately and finished at zero, reflecting just how thoroughly St. Louis controlled every inning of play.
The damage was done early and often against Cubs starter David Peterson. Nathan Church delivered the game's single most consequential swing in the top of the second inning, launching a home run off Peterson that shifted win probability by plus 12.4 percent in St. Louis's favor and set the tone for what became a relentless offensive assault. The Cardinals added three more runs that same inning, and a JJ Wetherholt strikeout to end a Cubs threat carried an additional plus 7.0 percent swing. The third inning brought more of the same, with a Masyn Winn single adding plus 6.2 percent and a Jordan Walker double adding plus 5.9 percent, both again off Peterson. Chicago's best chance to respond came in the bottom of the second, when Dansby Swanson's flyout against Andre Pallante represented a minus 10.1 percent swing against the Cubs, snuffing out a potential rally before it could gain any traction.
Among individual performers, Church led all batters with a plus 12.2 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus 2.3, while Wetherholt contributed plus 6.8 percent WPA and Walker added plus 6.2 percent WPA with a RE24 of plus 0.6. On the mound, Andre Pallante was the standout, finishing with a plus 16.6 percent WPA as he kept the Cubs offense entirely in check through his portion of the game. St. Louis scored in five of their first six turns at bat, piling up 17 runs and 17 hits while the Cubs managed only one run on seven hits across nine innings.