MLB Recap · July 2, 2026

Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardians: Final Score & Recap

CWS5
Final
CLE6

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
CWS0000320005100
CLE002001102692

The Story

The Cleveland Guardians walked off the Chicago White Sox 6-5 on July 2, 2026 at Progressive Field, with Brayan Rocchio delivering a walk-off home run in the bottom of the ninth off Grant Taylor that swung win probability by 79.5 points and moved the DiamondIQ model's estimate from a competitive game to a final certainty of 100 percent in Cleveland's favor. The Guardians had trailed heading into the late innings, making Rocchio's blast the decisive moment of the contest after what had been a back-and-forth game. Cleveland finished with six runs on nine hits and committed two errors, while Chicago went 5-for-10 in runs scored with a clean fielding performance.

Chicago had built its lead through a productive middle stretch, with Kyle Teel delivering a double off Slade Cecconi in the top of the fifth that carried a 16.4-point win-probability swing, helping the White Sox push across three runs in that frame to take a 3-2 lead. Chase Meidroth then added a home run off Cecconi in the top of the sixth, a swing worth 14.6 win-probability points, giving Chicago a 5-3 advantage entering the back half of the game. Cleveland chipped away with David Fry's home run off Brandon Eisert in the bottom of the seventh, a 15.2-point swing that tightened the deficit, but it was Rocchio who finished it, ending a Cleveland ninth that saw Chase DeLauter's groundout in the eighth represent a 16.5-point drain on Cleveland's chances before the comeback materialized.

Rocchio was the clear standout by DiamondIQ metrics, finishing with a combined WPA of plus-81.7 percent and a RE24 of plus-2.2, the overwhelming driver of Cleveland's victory. On the pitching side, Chris Murphy led White Sox relievers with a plus-16.7 percent WPA contribution, while Shawn Armstrong added plus-11.2 percent for Chicago. The DiamondIQ model had opened the game with a modest 54 percent pre-game lean toward Cleveland, a number that proved prescient, though the path to that outcome ran almost entirely through one at-bat in the bottom of the ninth.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025CWS bats firstFinalCLE win %CWS win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 53.9% → final 100%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Brayan Rocchio Home Run
Bot 9th · off Grant Taylor
+79.5%
Chase DeLauter Groundout
Bot 8th · off Grant Taylor
-16.5%
Kyle Teel Double
Top 5th · off Slade Cecconi
+16.4%
David Fry Home Run
Bot 7th · off Brandon Eisert
+15.2%
Chase Meidroth Home Run
Top 6th · off Slade Cecconi
+14.6%

Top Batters by WPA

Brayan Rocchio+81.7%+2.2 RE24
David Fry+15.2%+1.0 RE24
Kyle Teel+15.2%+0.8 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
Open Game Center →