Miami Marlins at Colorado Rockies: Final Score & Recap

The Colorado Rockies handed the Miami Marlins a decisive 14-4 defeat at Coors Field on July 2, 2026, a result the DiamondIQ model's estimate tracked from a 41 percent pre-game home win probability all the way to 100 percent by the final out. Colorado built its lead incrementally through the early innings, scoring once in the first, twice in the third, and twice in the fourth, before a seven-run sixth inning sealed Miami's fate and made the outcome a formality over the game's final three frames.

The decisive shift in win probability came in the bottom of the fourth, when Jake McCarthy launched a home run off John King that added 22.8 percent in win probability and effectively anchored Colorado's control of the game. McCarthy had already benefited from a favorable situation in the third, where Willi Castro's single off Ryan Gusto moved the needle 12.3 percent and Mickey Moniak's double off the same pitcher added another 11.5 percent, setting up early damage. McCarthy returned in the sixth with a run-producing single off Calvin Faucher worth another 11.4 percent. Miami's most meaningful moment came in the top of the fourth, when Joe Mack drew a walk off Michael Lorenzen to generate 9.0 percent in win probability for the Marlins, though the offense could not convert the opportunity into a sustained rally.

McCarthy finished as the game's most impactful offensive player, accumulating a combined WPA of plus-37.9 percent and a RE24 of plus-2.9. Moniak was close behind with plus-18.3 percent WPA and a team-leading plus-3.1 RE24, and Castro contributed plus-10.0 percent WPA. On the pitching side, Brennan Bernardino led Colorado's relievers with plus-14.4 percent WPA, with Victor Vodnik adding plus-4.7 percent in support as the Rockies' bullpen preserved a thoroughly dominant performance.