Chicago White Sox at Baltimore Orioles: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CWS | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| BAL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | 6 | 7 | 0 |
The Story
The Baltimore Orioles defeated the Chicago White Sox 6-1 on July 1, 2026, at Oriole Park at Camden Yards, turning what the DiamondIQ model opened as a near-even contest at 47 percent home win probability into a decisive home victory. Chicago drew first blood with a run in the top of the first inning, but the Orioles answered emphatically with a four-run fifth inning that effectively ended the competitive portion of the game, pushing the model's estimate to near certainty before Baltimore added single runs in the sixth and eighth to set the final margin.
The fifth inning was where the game was decided, and the DiamondIQ model's win-probability swings told the story clearly. Tyler O'Neill's home run off Noah Schultz was the single biggest moment of the game, shifting Baltimore's win probability by 13.1 percent and representing O'Neill's most impactful contribution of a night that earned him the top WPA mark among hitters at plus 14.5 percent with a RE24 of plus 1.0. Pete Alonso's walk off Trevor Richards added another 10.5 percent, and Adley Rutschman's single off Bryan Hudson contributed 10.4 percent, with Gunnar Henderson's single off Hudson tacking on another 7.7 percent in the same frame. Chicago's best chance to stay in contention had come earlier, but Leody Taveras grounded into a double play in the bottom of the second, costing the White Sox 5.8 percent in win probability off Schultz.
On the mound, Dean Kremer was the dominant force of the evening, accumulating a game-high plus 21.9 percent WPA as he kept Chicago's offense largely in check across his outing. Tyler Wells contributed plus 4.8 percent, while Schultz, despite surrendering the game's key swing moment, finished with a positive WPA of plus 4.6 percent on the strength of his overall work. Jackson Holliday and Rutschman rounded out Baltimore's offensive contributors with WPA figures of plus 7.3 and plus 7.0 percent, respectively, underscoring how thoroughly the Orioles controlled the contest once the fifth inning unfolded.