Minnesota Twins at Houston Astros: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 2 |
| HOU | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
The Story
The Minnesota Twins handed the Houston Astros an 8-3 defeat at Daikin Park on July 1, 2026, a result the DiamondIQ model's estimate made increasingly inevitable as the game progressed. Houston entered with a 55 percent pre-game win probability that collapsed to zero by the final out. Minnesota struck early and often, plating two runs in the first inning and three more in the second to build a lead the Astros never seriously threatened. The Twins added two insurance runs in the fifth and one more in the eighth, finishing with eight runs on eight hits despite committing two errors.
The second inning proved decisive by win-probability measures. Kody Clemens delivered the game's most impactful offensive blow, a home run off Tatsuya Imai that shifted win probability 9.8 points in Minnesota's favor. On the Houston side, Raynel Delgado's strikeout against Taj Bradley in the bottom of the second carried a 12.7-point swing against the Astros, the single largest probability move of the game. A Victor Caratini lineout in that same second frame, off AJ Blubaugh, contributed another 8.5-point swing Minnesota's way, illustrating just how thoroughly the Twins controlled the inning. Trevor Larnach added a fifth-inning single off Nate Pearson worth 7.5 points of win probability as Minnesota continued to apply pressure. Houston's best opportunity evaporated in the seventh when Cam Smith grounded into a double play off Andrew Morris, a sequence that cost the Astros 9.1 points of probability.
Taj Bradley was the game's dominant individual performer, producing a staggering plus-25.2 percent win-probability contribution from the mound for Minnesota. Among hitters, Caratini led all batters with a plus-9.3 percent WPA figure, while Clemens added plus-7.9 percent alongside a 1.2 RE24. Yordan Alvarez provided Houston's brightest offensive moment, posting plus-7.6 percent WPA and a 1.0 RE24, but his contributions came within a game that had already largely been decided. Andrew Morris supplemented Bradley with a plus-6.3 percent WPA effort out of the bullpen as Minnesota completed a thorough road victory.