Pittsburgh Pirates at Philadelphia Phillies: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 12 | 1 |
| PHI | 0 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | 10 | 11 | 0 |
The Story
The Philadelphia Phillies defeated the Pittsburgh Pirates 10-6 on July 1, 2026, at Citizens Bank Park, a result the DiamondIQ model's estimate anticipated from the start with a 61 percent pre-game home win probability that climbed to 100 percent by the final out. The game turned decisively in the bottom of the second inning, where Philadelphia did the bulk of its damage against Pittsburgh starter Paul Skenes, plating five runs in a frame that featured the three most consequential plays of the contest. Justin Crawford's fielders choice added 11.4 percent to Philadelphia's win probability, Trea Turner followed with a home run worth 8.8 percent, and even a Bryce Harper strikeout factored into the inning's probability swing by 7.3 percent as Pittsburgh burned through pitching resources early. Pittsburgh did show life in the top of the seventh, when Jared Triolo laced a double off Seth Johnson that swung win probability 8.1 percent in the Pirates' favor, and the visitors added two runs in that frame to trim the deficit temporarily. Alec Bohm answered immediately with an eighth-inning home run off Dennis Santana worth 8.1 percent, effectively sealing the outcome.
Among individuals, Triolo led all position players with a WPA of plus-13.5 and an RE24 of plus-2.1, pacing Pittsburgh's offensive resistance despite the loss, while Harper matched him nearly identically at plus-13.4 WPA and plus-1.4 RE24 on the winning side. Crawford contributed plus-10.4 WPA for Philadelphia. On the mound, reliever Orion Kerkering was the game's most valuable pitcher by the DiamondIQ model's estimate, posting plus-11.7 WPA as he helped close out Pittsburgh's late push, with Yohan Ramírez and Cam Sanders adding plus-2.9 and plus-1.5 respectively. Pittsburgh finished with 12 hits and one error against Philadelphia's clean defensive effort of zero errors on 11 hits, leaving the Pirates unable to convert their contact into enough sustained scoring to overcome the second-inning deficit.