New York Mets at Toronto Blue Jays: Final Score & Recap

The Toronto Blue Jays defeated the New York Mets 9-3 at Rogers Centre on July 1, 2026, a result that matched the DiamondIQ model's pre-game estimate of a 60 percent home win probability and saw that figure climb to 100 percent by the final out. Toronto's offense did its most decisive damage in two separate four-run innings, the third and seventh, while the Mets managed just five hits and were held without an error but equally without a significant threat for most of the afternoon.

The turning point arrived in the bottom of the third inning, where Toronto did the bulk of its work against Mets starter Freddy Peralta. Sean Keys delivered the most impactful blow of the game, a home run that added 17.8 percent to Toronto's win probability and effectively broke the contest open. Ernie Clement followed with a double worth 10.2 percent in win-probability terms, and a Kazuma Okamoto walk contributed another 3.1 percent as the Blue Jays pushed across four runs in the frame. On the Mets side, Juan Soto grounded out against Spencer Miles in the top of the third for a swing of negative 3.5 percent, a moment that encapsulated New York's inability to generate any meaningful counter-pressure.

In terms of individual performance by the DiamondIQ model's accounting, Keys led all position players with a WPA of plus 16.3 percent and an RE24 of plus 2.2, while Clement posted plus 8.6 percent WPA and Okamoto added plus 4.1 percent WPA with a plus 0.8 RE24. Spencer Miles paced the Toronto pitching staff with plus 11.7 percent WPA, followed by Patrick Corbin at plus 5.7 percent, as the Blue Jays' combined effort held the Mets to three late, inconsequential runs in the eighth and ninth innings.