Miami Marlins at Colorado Rockies: Final Score & Recap

The Colorado Rockies defeated the Miami Marlins 6-3 on July 1, 2026, at Coors Field, turning what had briefly looked like a Marlins opportunity into a comfortable Colorado win. The DiamondIQ model's estimate opened with the Rockies holding a 40 percent pre-game win probability and closed at 100 percent, a full swing driven largely by a decisive fifth inning that broke the game open.

The pivotal sequence came in the bottom of the fifth, when the Rockies erupted for four runs off Marlins starter Max Meyer. Hunter Goodman's home run added 20.9 percent in win probability, and Mickey Moniak followed shortly after with a triple worth 20.3 percent, together accounting for the two most impactful plays of the game by a wide margin. Miami had briefly threatened in the top of the fourth, when Javier Sanoja's triple off Kyle Freeland added 10.2 percent in win probability for the Marlins and Heriberto Hernandez's double contributed an additional 9.6 percent, producing a two-run frame that represented the closest the Marlins came to taking control. Joe Mack added a solo home run off Juan Mejia in the seventh for Miami, a swing worth 9.6 percent, but by that point the deficit was too large to overcome.

By WPA, Moniak finished as the game's top individual performer at plus 24.7 percent with a RE24 of plus 2.6, while Goodman posted plus 17.6 percent and plus 1.3 RE24. On the Miami side, Sanoja led all Marlins with plus 14.5 percent and a RE24 of plus 1.4. Among pitchers, Kyle Freeland led Colorado with plus 5.8 percent WPA despite surrendering the fourth-inning runs, and Jimmy Herget added plus 4.5 percent in relief. The model leans toward the Rockies having controlled this game decisively from the fifth inning onward, with Moniak and Goodman providing the back-to-back damage that effectively ended the contest.